Fourth-Year Itch: Will Imran Khan Complete His Term

Sameer Arshad Khatlani
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Another Pakistani prime minister appears to be facing an unceremonious removal from power. Pakistan's media has been abuzz with reports about a possible 'deal' between the country's military establishment and Prime Minister Imran Khan's opponents, including his arch-rival Nawaz Sharif, and the latter's possible return from self-imposed exile in the UK. The speculation has coincided with talk of threats to Khan's government amid anger in the country over price rise and misgovernance. The major reverses Khan's party suffered in its stronghold of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in the local bodies elections and an upbeat mood in the Opposition camp have also fueled the speculation. 

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Shehbaz Sharif, the Opposition Leader in Pakistan's National Assembly, on Thursday reflected the mood when he claimed the end of Khan's government was a matter of time. He asked people to support a 'decisive move' of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), an alliance of the Opposition parties, to dislodge the government. The PDM has announced an anti-inflation march to the national capital Islamabad against the government’s failures. 

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Three days earlier, Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) leader and former President Asif Ali Zardari reiterated his 'prediction' that Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf government would not last. In an apparent reference to the establishment, he claimed his assistance was sought but he told 'them' first the government should be sent packing before talks could be held. He cited the rise in debt from $30bn to $60 billion, devaluation of the currency, and said they have the best experts to rid the country of it if Khan is toppled sooner. He said his son, Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, would become the next prime minister. 

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Khan's delayed approval earlier in October of Lieutenant General Nadeem Anjum's nomination as the new head of spy agency Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) indicated all was not well. The approval came amid speculation that it was delayed for weeks because of a rift between the country's civilian and military leadership. Khan is believed to have faced off against Army chief Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa over the transfer of Anjum's predecessor, Lieutenant General Faiz Hameed, before the end of his three-year tenure as the ISI chief. The supposed rift belied Khan's claims of synergy between the civilian and military leadership.   

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Khan's woes follow a pattern in Pakistan's politics as Opposition parties have closed ranks in demanding his ouster. The shoe is now on the other foot. As the Opposition leader, Khan pushed for Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's ouster over alleged ‘poll fraud’ in the 2013 elections. He led a march on capital Islamabad and held a protracted sit-in there to press for his demand. Sharif survived but was forced to step down in 2017 after the Supreme Court disqualified him from holding office for buying undeclared properties in London through offshore companies.

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Sharif, who was serving a prison term for corruption when he left the country on the pretext of treatment, has blamed the military establishment for his ouster a year before the end of his tenure. His loyalist Shahid Khaqan Abbasi became the prime minister before Khan was voted to power in 2018. Similarly, the Supreme Court in 2012 declared PPP's Yousaf Raza Gilani ineligible to remain the prime minister for contempt over his refusal to reopen corruption cases against then-President Zardari. The PPP retained power for full five years as it named Raja Pervez Ashraf as Gilani's successor. Sharif and Benazir Bhutto (PPP) were earlier in the 1990s twice each unable to complete their full terms in office as prime ministers. Two prime ministers also held the country's top elected office after elections were held in 2002 following Pervez Musharraf's military takeover in 1999.

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Sharif was first booted out of power in 1993. He prevailed briefly during his second term when he forced army chief Jehangir Karamat to resign. Sharif's attempt to do the same with Musharraf backfired. Musharraf deposed Sharif before the latter was jailed and sentenced to death. Sharif subsequently opted for almost decade-long exile before he became the Prime Minister for the third time in 2013. Khan's troubles are real if the recent history of Pakistani politics is anything to go by. Zardari, who is known as Pakistan's most shrewd politician, may well end up laughing all the way to power. He unlike Sharif played ball with the army when the PPP was in the government last. Sharif has shown an unwillingness to cede space in power to the military. Zardari was seen to have no issues with allowing the establishment have a major say in defense and foreign policies. Sharif is quoted to have said he would not budge even if he is ousted from power again before his disqualification in 2017. Like Sharif, an impulsive Khan does not appear to have the temperament to outmaneuver the establishment. History could well repeat itself and Pakistan's upbeat Opposition may end up having the last laugh again.

Sameer Arshad Khatlani is an author-journalist based in New Delhi. He has been a Senior Assistant Editor with Hindustan Times, India’s second-biggest English newspaper. Khatlani worked in a similar capacity with The Indian Express, India's most influential newspaper known for its investigative journalism, until June 2018. Born and raised in Kashmir, he began his career with the now-defunct Bangalore-based Vijay Times in 2005 as its national affairs correspondent. He joined Times of India, one of the world's largest selling broadsheets, in 2007. Over the next nine years, he was a part of the paper's national and international newsgathering team as an Assistant Editor. 

Khatlani has reported from Iraq and Pakistan and covered elections and national disasters. He received a master’s degree in History from the prestigious Jamia Millia Islamia University in New Delhi. Khatlani is a fellow with Hawaii-based American East-West Center established by the US Congress in 1960 to promote better relations and understanding with Asian, and Pacific countries through cooperative study, research, and dialogue. 

Penguin published Khatlani’s first book The Other Side of the Divide: A Journey into the Heart of Pakistan in February 2020. Eminent academic and King’s college professor, Christophe Jaffrelot, has called the book ‘an erudite historical account... [that] offers a comprehensive portrait of Pakistan, including the role of the army and religion—not only Islam’.