Imran Khan's Bid To Blame American Will Resonate If He Loses Power

Sameer Arshad Khatlani
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In the run-up to the no-confidence vote he faces this month, Prime Minister Imran Khan has hit out at the West and publicly criticized the European Union. His supporters have linked his refusal to allow the US to use Pakistan's territory or bases to the vote. Khan is widely expected to rally support for himself by relying on his refusal to play footsie with America unlike his predecessors to corner his rivals in case he is ousted from power. Many of his lawmakers have withdrawn support for him, raising questions about whether he can continue in power as he faces criticism over his economic and foreign policies. 

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Khan has 155 seats in parliament's lower house. He needs the backing of coalition partners and dissidents for the support of 172 members of the House to complete his term and become the first Pakistani Prime Minister to do so. The opposition parties that have joined hands to oust Khan have a strength of around 163 members. Khan is believed to have fallen out with the country's army and is seen to be unlikely to retain power in such a scenario. The army, which has ruled the country for decades, has been one of three As that have long defined Pakistan. The salience of the other A—American— is expected to increase after a long time in case Khan loses the no-confidence vote.

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The confidential diplomatic cables WikiLeaks released in 2010 underlined the extent of the American involvement in Pakistani politics and embarrassed the political elite that is now seeking to return to power. It showed Maulana Fazlur Rehman, who has been at the forefront of the campaign to remove Khan, lobbied then US ambassador to Islamabad, Anne Patterson, to help him become the Prime Minister. The cables highlighted how Pakistan's leading players sought advice, favours as well as confided, complained, and poured their hearts to Patterson. Her good offices were also used to resolve the crisis in the aftermath of protests over the restoration of chief justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry in 2009. The protests threatened to destablise the country’s first civilian government elected after nine years of military rule. Thousands of opposition-backed lawyers marched to Islamabad seeking the restoration after president Asif Ali Zardari dragged his feet on his promise to reinstall Chaudhary years after military ruler Pervez Musharraf removed him.

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It emerged that former National Security Adviser Mahmud Durrani leaked an in-camera briefing of the spy agency Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to the parliamentarian to the American embassy. This prompted Shereen Mazari, who is now a minister in Khan’s Cabinet, to say American ambassadors to Pakistan are no less than viceroys. The leaks showed army chief Ashfaq Parvez Kayani allowed the US special forces to operate in the country and discussed with the Americans in 2009 the possibility of persuading Zardari to resign and replace him with his ally Asfandyar Wali Khan.

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The leaks came as Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani and Zardari grappled with a credibility crisis. According to the leaked cables, Zardari told Patterson he feared a coup and that he had made a provision for his sister to be named president in case he is assassinated. The cables showed Pakistan’s leadership ‘quietly acquiesced’ with the highly-unpopular drone attacks, which led to collateral damage and left hundreds dead in the country's northwest, while it protested publicly. Gilani, who tabled a resolution condemning the attacks in the parliament, was quoted as saying that he does not care as long as drones get the right people. He told Patterson that they will protest in Parliament and then ignore it.

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The cables showed interior minister Rehman Malik requested an urgent meeting with Patterson in November 2009 and sought ‘political protection’ for Zardari. Malik told her ISI chief Ahmed Shuja Pasha was ‘spinning intrigues’ against Zardari. But an unconvinced Patterson wrote to the US state department that Malik’s view was ‘either naïve or intentionally misleading.’ The US ambassadors have long played a larger role in the country. In his 2004 book on Pakistan, American South Asian expert Stephen Cohen referred to the role. Cohen noted that every US ambassador he talked to complained of being dragged into Pakistani politics by politicians and even the military. He said all the envoys were distressed over the lack of political integrity in Pakistan, which Khan has also repeatedly emphasised. Khan and his supporters have signalled they will not be shy away from blaming America for being involved in short-changing him for attempting to change the status quo. Given the history, this will have a resonance, overshadow Khan's governance failures, and give his politics a new lease of life.

This is an updated version of an article published in the Times of India, the author's former employer, in December 2010  

Sameer Arshad Khatlani is an author-journalist. He has been a Senior Assistant Editor with Hindustan Times, India’s second-biggest English newspaper. Khatlani worked in a similar capacity with The Indian Express, India's most influential newspaper known for its investigative journalism, until June 2018. Born and raised in Kashmir, he began his career with the Vijay Times, which has since been rebranded as Bangalore Mirror, in 2005 as its national-affairs correspondent. He joined Times of India, one of the world's largest selling broadsheets, in 2007. Over the next nine years, he was a part of the paper's national and international newsgathering team as an Assistant Editor. Khatlani has reported from Iraq, Pakistan, and the Maldives and covered elections and natural disasters. He received a master’s degree in History from the prestigious Jamia Millia Islamia University in New Delhi. Khatlani is a fellow with Hawaii-based American East-West Center established by the US Congress in 1960 to promote better relations and understanding with Asian, and Pacific countries through cooperative study, research, and dialogue. Penguin published Khatlani’s first book The Other Side of the Divide: A Journey into the Heart of Pakistan in February 2020. Eminent academic and King’s college professor, Christophe Jaffrelot, has called the book ‘an erudite historical account... [that] offers a comprehensive portrait of Pakistan, including the role of the army and religion—not only Islam.'